WTNT44 KNHC 160908
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL
GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST
HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
INTERACTION WITH DEAN.   THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE
DAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL
IS CALLING FOR 127 KT.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE
FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE
FIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
ANALYSIS CYCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0900Z 13.4N  52.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.9N  55.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N  59.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 14.9N  63.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.4N  66.5W   100 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  73.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   110 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  87.5W   115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN