WTNT34 KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.  THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.  A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DEAN IS A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.  BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI