000
WTNT34 KNHC 180247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...
1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937
MB...27.67 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT44 KNHC 172043
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS.  NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY.   THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/2100Z 15.0N  64.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.4W   115 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.4N  70.8W   120 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N  74.0W   125 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N  77.0W   130 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  84.0W   130 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W   100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N  96.0W   105 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA